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State of Play
30 episodes
Is Cuba Nearing an Inflection Point?
Aug 13, 2026 · 32 min
President Trump is ramping up economic pressure on Cuba and has instructed U.S. intelligence agencies to find a new leader who could work with the United States – like Delcy Rodriguez in Venezuela. Christopher Hernandez Roy and William LeoGrande join Will to discuss how the Trump administration’s strategy on Cuba is evolving, how Cuban leaders are responding, and if we are nearing an inflection point. State of Play audience survey Christopher Hernandez-Roy, Mark Cancian, and Henry Ziemer, "…
How Should the U.S. Counter China in the Pacific?
Jul 30, 2026 · 35 min
A Chinese submarine recently launched an intercontinental ballistic missile into the Pacific, and China has been on the hunt for a security foothold in the region. Meanwhile, the United States has cut assistance and reduced its diplomatic presence in the Pacific. This week, Charles Edel and Kathryn Paik join Will to discuss China’s ambitions in the Pacific, how U.S. interests in the region are evolving, and how Pacific countries are navigating geopolitical competition. State of Play au…
Was This World Cup More Political?
Jul 17, 2026 · 58 min
The 2026 FIFA World Cup unfolded against a backdrop of geopolitical tension, trade disputes, and competing national ambitions. But did these politics shape the tournament more than in previous years? Max Bergmann, Victor Cha, and Enoh Ebong join Will to assess the geopolitical dimensions of this year's World Cup in a live episode of State of Play. They examine how host nation diplomacy, soft power competition, and economic interests played out on and off the pitch, and what the tournament reveal…
Have Politics Jeopardized the Ebola Response?
Jul 2, 2026 · 32 min
The current Ebola outbreak comes after major cuts in humanitarian and health aid and is spreading in a deeply insecure environment. This week, Steve Morrison and Michaela Simoneau of the CSIS Global Health Policy Center join Will to discuss the degree to which politics have hampered the response. They assess the global response to date, the impact of the Trump administration’s policies, and the challenges of the local context. J. Stephen Morrison and Michaela Simoneau, "Managing DRC’s Ebola Cris…
Was the G7 Summit in France a Success?
Jun 17, 2026 · 42 min
The G7 Summit may have defied expectations. President Trump stayed until the end, there were no big bust-ups, and lots of joint policy statements. Victor Cha, Kristi Govella, Phil Luck, and Caitlin Welsh join Will to assess how meaningful the outcomes were, what the summit tells us about the United States’ relationship with its allies, and what the value of the G7 is in the evolving international order. Victor Cha, "Who Are G7’s Top Performers?" CSIS, June 12, 2026. CSIS scholars, "Press Briefin…
Trump's Iran Deal: What Comes Next?
Jun 15, 2026 · 43 min
The United States and Iran announced a framework deal that includes a 60-day ceasefire and reopens the Strait of Hormuz. CSIS Middle East Program experts Mona Yacoubian, Michael Ratney, Paul Salem, and Susan Ziadeh assess the winners and losers of the deal, what challenges lie ahead, and what it means for the emerging order in the Middle East.
How Should the United States Counter the CRINK Axis?
Jun 12, 2026 · 47 min
The recent Xi–Kim summit has further strengthened ties between China and North Korea, with potential implications for the broader dynamics among the CRINK countries and regional security. Dr. Victor Cha, Igor Khrestin, Joseph Kim, and Dr. Maria Snegovaya will join host Will Todman to discuss CRINK’s key vulnerabilities and examine U.S. policy recommendations for addressing the challenges the grouping poses to democracy, human rights, economic security, and national security. The discussion will…
Is Ukraine Turning the Tide?
Jun 4, 2026 · 35 min
Four years into the war, Ukraine may finally have the upper hand. Will speaks with Max Bergmann and Maria Snegovaya about their recent trip to Kyiv, Ukraine's key advantages, Russia's challenges, and if the shifting balance of power means the war may finally end soon. Max Bergmann and Maria Snegovaya, "War, Inflation, and Putin's Paranoia: has Russian Public Opinion Begun to Shift?" CSIS, May 14, 2026. Max Bergmann and Donatienne Ruy, "Reflections from Ukraine, Crisis in the UK, and the EU's Cor…
Is Something Big About to Happen with North Korea?
May 29, 2026 · 35 min
A flurry of diplomatic activity and a reported visit of Xi Jinping to North Korea has heightened speculation that something is afoot. Victor Cha, Tom Christensen, and Edgard Kagan join Will to discuss what these signals indicate, how relations between North Korea and China are shifting, and what a Trump-Kim meeting could achieve. Victor Cha and Andy Lim, “Can Sports Diplomacy Open a Door on the Korean Peninsula?” CSIS, May 4, 2026. Edgard Kagan, “Trump-Xi Summit in Beijing: Managing the World’s…
What Can Negotiations Between Lebanon and Israel Achieve?
May 26, 2026 · 34 min
Under U.S. pressure, Lebanon and Israel recently entered into direct negotiations for the first time in 30 years. This week, Mona Yacoubian and Paul Salem join Will to discuss what each side is hoping to get out of the negotiations, how the talks fit into the broader regional context, and what the prospects for success are. Paul Salem, “Lebanon and Israel Talks: Empowering Diplomacy Over Open-Ended Conflict,” CSIS, May 14, 2026. Mona Yacoubian, “Lebanon’s Moment of Reckoning,” Foreign Policy, Ap…
What did the Trump-Xi Summit Achieve?
May 15, 2026 · 59 min
The U.S.-China summit covered trade, investment, the war with Iran, and Taiwan. Edgard Kagan, Scott Kennedy, and Bonny Lin joined Will to discuss how successful the summit was, what it means for the future of U.S.-China relations, and what we should be watching going forward. Edgard Kagan and Bonny Lin, “Unpacking President Trump’s Visit to China | State of Play,” CSIS, May 15, 2026. Scott Kennedy, “A Confident Beijing Welcomes President Trump,” CSIS, May 11, 2026.
Is a Cold Peace with North Korea Possible?
May 7, 2026 · 42 min
North Korea has resisted decades of international denuclearization efforts, including the world’s most crippling sanctions regime. Victor Cha and Sydney Seiler join Will to discuss why U.S. strategy has failed, how the strategic landscape has shifted and increased North Korea's leverage, and what a better strategy would look like. Victor Cha, “North Korea as It Is: The Case for a Cold Peace,” Foreign Affairs, May/June 2026. Sydney Seiler, “North Korea in 2026: Intentions, Realities, and Response…
Has the Iran War Transformed the Middle East's Future?
Apr 22, 2026 · 53 min
The war with Iran has roiled the economies of the Middle East, shattered trust between Iran and Arab Gulf states, challenged security arrangements, and highlighted the region's geopolitical importance. But looking ahead, how much has the war really changed the region's future, and what is likely to remain more constant? Vali Nasr, Michael Ratney, Mona Yacoubian, and Susan Ziadeh joined Will to discuss how the war has reshaped the Middle East. Maria Fantappie and Vali Nasr, "Can Saudi Arabia Keep…
Will Orban’s Defeat Transform Europe?
Apr 13, 2026 · 19 min
Prime minister Victor Orban lost the Hungarian elections after 16 years in power. Péter Magyar’s landslide victory gave him a broad mandate for change and the ability to do so. Donatienne Ruy joins Will to discuss what changes he will make, what it means for Hungary’s relationship with the EU, and if this will be a game changer for Europe. Donatienne Ruy, “What Happens After Hungary’s Election? Four Scenarios to Watch,” CSIS, April 3, 2026. Donatienne Ruy and Maria Snegovaya, “What Is at Stake i…
Has the Iran war upended U.S.-China negotiations?
Apr 9, 2026 · 28 min
President Trump delayed his planned summit with Xi Jinping from March to May due to the war with Iran. Scott Kennedy and Brian Hart join Will to assess the war's impact on the talks, if the war has changed China's negotiating strategy, and if we should expect a different outcome from the May summit as a result of the delay. Scott Kennedy, "The United States Needs a Coherent China Policy," CSIS, October 6, 2025. Bonny Lin, "Why a Venezuela-Style Operation Would Backfire for Beijing," CSIS, Januar…
What Are the Hidden Costs of the War with Iran?
Mar 25, 2026 · 49 min
Beyond increasing gas prices, the war with Iran has had significant ripple effects for food security, economic security, and humanitarian crises in the Middle East and beyond. Emily Harding, Caitlin Welsh, and Mona Yacoubian joined Will to discuss the short- and long-term implications of the war that are getting less attention, and what can be done to mitigate their worst effects. Emily Harding, "Data Is Now the Front Line of Warfare," CSIS, March 19, 2026 David Michel, "Could Iran Disrupt the G…
How did Japan Navigate Trump's Pressure on Iran?
Mar 20, 2026 · 18 min
Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi was the first U.S. ally to visit President Trump in the White House after he called on allies to help with the war on Iran. Nick Szechenyi joins Will to discuss what Takaichi had hoped to achieve in her visit, how she handled Trump's pressure, and the playbook she's developing for U.S. allies. Kristi Govella and Jane Nakano, "What Are the Implications of the Iran Conflict for Japan?" CSIS, March 20, 2026. "Fact Sheet: President Donald J. Trump Strengthens U.S.-Japan…
Are Russia and China Benefitting from the War with Iran?
Mar 17, 2026 · 35 min
As the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran enters its third week, U.S. attention is focused on the Middle East once again. Both China and Russia may find strategic openings, from higher global energy prices that bolster Moscow’s war economy to new opportunities for Beijing to expand its influence elsewhere. But the conflict also carries costs for both. Instability threatens critical energy supplies to China, while the conflict is prompting the further degradation of a key Russian partner in the Middle Ea…
Is Cuba Next?
Mar 12, 2026 · 36 min
President Trump said the Cuban government will fall “pretty soon” and “it may not be a friendly takeover.” Ryan Berg and Carrie Filipetti join Will to discuss President Trump’s goals in Cuba, his range of options, and the risks and benefits of regime change. “Secretary of State Marco Rubio with John Micklethwait of Bloomberg News,” U.S. Department of State, February 14, 2026. Ryan Berg et al. “China’s Intelligence Footprint in Cuba: New Evidence and Implications for U.S. Security,” CSIS, Decembe…
Would Regime Change Solve the Iran Challenge?
Mar 5, 2026 · 32 min
To discuss the risks of regime change in Iran, the lessons to draw from other regime change efforts in the Middle East and beyond, and to outline what the United States can do now to ensure a positive outcome in Iran, Jon Alterman, Daniel Byman, and Mona Yacoubian joined Will Todman on a live episode of State of Play. Jon Alterman, "Why Decapitation Will Not Solve the United States’ Iran Problem," CSIS, March 3, 2026. Daniel Byman, "6 Questions About Operation Epic Fury," Foreign Policy, Februar…
How are SE Asian States Recalibrating Their U.S. and China Ties Under Trump 2.0?
Feb 26, 2026 · 29 min
President Trump's economic strategy in SE Asia faces new questions after the Supreme Court struck down tariffs. Greg Poling and Henrietta Levin join Will to discuss how SE Asian states are engaging with the Trump administration and navigating U.S.-China competition in the region. Japhet Quitzon and Greg Poling, "Lessons from the Manila Strategy Forum," CSIS, February 25, 2026. Henrietta Levin, Greg Poling, et al. "State of Play: The Global Impact of the SCOTUS Decision on IEEPA Tariffs," CSIS, F…
Emergency Episode: European Security after the Munich Conference
Feb 18, 2026 · 17 min
Max Bergmann shares his key observations about transatlantic relations after attending the Munich Security Conference. He discusses how European leaders reacted to Secretary Rubio’s speech, the U.S. strategy for Europe, and the ongoing challenges of shifting the defense burden from the United States to Europe. Max Bergmann, “How Europe Can Defend Itself with Less America,” (video) CSIS, November 5, 2025. Max Bergmann and Otto Svendsen, “How Europe Can Defend Itself with Less America,” (report) C…
Are we thinking about tech competition with China the right way?
Feb 12, 2026 · 41 min
Technological advances are not just about economics, but also power and leverage. Mark Dallas and Ilaria Mazzocco join Will to explore the geopolitical aspect of tech competition. They discuss each state's key technological advantages, what geopolitical power they bring them, and how the United States should compete better. "Tech Edge: A Living Playbook for America’s Technology Long Game," CSIS, January 20, 2026. "America's Technology Long Game for Competing with China," CSIS Events, January 28,…
Emergency Episode: PM Takaichi's Landslide Victory in Japan
Feb 10, 2026 · 18 min
Nick Szechenyi joins Will to analyze the geopolitical consequences of Sanae Takaichi's resounding victory in the February 8 Japanese general elections. They discuss what the prime minister's historic supermajority in the lower house of parliament means for Japan's defense spending, tensions with China, ties with the United States, and Takaichi's broader strategy. Yuko Nakano and Nicholas Szechenyi, "Takaichi Dominates Japan’s Lower House Election," CSIS, February 9, 2026. Kristi Govella, Charles…
Can middle powers build a new world order as PM Carney says?
Jan 29, 2026 · 38 min
At Davos, the Canadian prime minister argued that the rules based system is fading and middle powers must work together to build a new world order. Chris Hernandez-Roy and Kristi Govella join Will to discuss whether or not key U.S. allies like Canada and Japan could do this, what it might look like, and what the risks are. Mark Carney, "Davos 2026: Special address by Mark Carney, Prime Minister of Canada," January 20, 2026. Kristi Govella, "Japan’s Response to Trump 2.0: Sustaining U.S. Ties, St…
How should we combat China's economic coercion?
Jan 23, 2026 · 1 hr 10 min
In a special live episode to mark the launch of a new book on China's weaponization of trade, Will sits down with its main author Dr. Victor Cha and panelists Bethany Allen and Dr. Melanie Hart. They discuss how China's economic strategy is evolving, how it compares with President Trump's own form of economic coercion, and what states and firms can do to push back. Victor Cha, Ellen Kim, and Andy Lim, "China's Weaponization of Trade: Resistance Through Collective Resilience" (Columbia University…
What are CSIS experts' boldest geopolitical predictions in 2026?
Jan 15, 2026 · 42 min
After a momentous year of geopolitical shifts, 12 CSIS experts join Will to share what they consider the most significant developments in different parts of the world in 2025. They also share their predictions for what they expect to happen across the world in the year ahead. "Indo-Pacific Forecast 2026," CSIS, January 14, 2026.
The Donroe Doctrine: What Venezuela Means for China, Russia, and Iran
Jan 14, 2026 · 59 min
Nicolas Maduro was a key ally of the so-called CRINK countries (China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea) in Latin America. But President Trump’s actions in Venezuela seemingly support an attempt to alter the balance of power in the Western Hemisphere. The CSIS Geopolitics and Foreign Policy Department invites you to a special episode of State of Play on the lessons these states are learning from Maduro’s capture and what it means for their interests going forward. The discussion will feature Dr. Ry…
Did Trump remake the global order in 2025?
Dec 17, 2025 · 41 min
2025 was a transformative year for geopolitics. Victor Cha and the Brookings Institution's Dr. Tom Wright join Will to discuss how the United States' global strategy changed, how its allies and adversaries are responding, and what to watch for in the year ahead. Thomas Wright, "A Strategy That Ignores the Real Threats," The Atlantic, December 8, 2025. Victor Cha (ed.), "Navigating Disruption: Ally and Partner Responses to U.S. Foreign Policy," CSIS, October 6, 2025.
Where now for Europe and Ukraine after the NSS?
Dec 10, 2025 · 34 min
After a flurry of diplomacy on Ukraine and the release of the new U.S. National Security Strategy, Max Bergmann and Maria Snegovaya join Will to discuss what we should expect from ceasefire negotiations in Ukraine and how the growing crisis in transatlantic relations might shape the contours of a deal. Max Bergmann, "The NSS That Could Destroy the NATO Alliance," CSIS, December 5, 2025. Mark F Cancian and Maria Snegovaya, "The Unfinished Plan for Peace in Ukraine: Provision by Provision," CSIS,…
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